AI losses grow to $310 million in US state of Minnesota

Losses in poultry production and related businesses due to avian influenza are estimated at $309.9 million in the US state of Minnesota, according to a newly released emergency economic impact analysis from University of Minnesota Extension.

Using economic modelling, analysts determined that for every million dollars in direct losses, the estimated ripple effect leads to $1.8 million in overall economic losses, including $450,000 in wages. Ripple effect losses stem from factors including reduced wage-earner and business-to-business spending.

The Extension analysis put losses of poultry production – both turkeys and egg-laying chickens – at $113 million as of May 11.

Losses have the potential to double

“These projections represent where we stand as of May 11,” said Brigid Tuck, Extension senior analyst, who led the study. “If the virus affects more farms, as we have seen since May 11, the impact levels will rise. If barns stay empty for another cycle of poultry production, these numbers could potentially double”.

Poultry production and processing is a $3 billion industry in the state; overall, poultry growers represent about 7% of the agricultural and forestry economy. The study focuses on the state’s 80 non-metro counties, where nearly all poultry production occurs.

The extension also concluded that the industry that produces feed for poultry and other animals will be hardest hit by poultry production losses. For every $1 million of lost poultry production, nearly $230,000 of demand for poultry feed is lost.

Source: University of Minnesota