The world’s largest poultry meat exporter was recently confronted with a Newcastle disease infection – the first since 2006. This virus, and the ever-looming threat of avian influenza, has put Brazil on edge. Constant vigilance and monitoring are in place to safeguard bird health and ensure the free flow of exports to over 150 countries worldwide.
Over the last 3 decades, Brazilian animal protein exports have grown from virtually non-existent to the biggest in the whole world. A drive to become the ‘world’s supermarket’ and a combination of favourable production factors have made this possible. With an abundance of soy, corn and water, and relatively low cost labour, Brazil’s price point is more than competitive. On top of that, some costly diseases were never an issue. Until recently, avian influenza was a problem only on other continents than in Latin American. Newcastle disease was also a distant problem, so much so that Brazilian producers don’t vaccinate against it. However, the situation has now changed.
At the recently-held SIAVS 2024 livestock exhibition and conference, both national and international stakeholders gathered to learn about the latest developments. Although Brazil’s export situation is still among the best in the world, the sector needs to evolve. Francisco Turra, chairman of the Advisory Board of the Brazilian Association for Animal Protein (ABPA) and former Minister of Agriculture, identifies 3 trends apart from the current disease situation. “Looking towards the future we see an end of hyper globalisation, the end of the Chinese wonder and higher than usual inflation rates.”
According to Turra, the situation in China, in particular, will have an impact on Brazil: “The Chinese miracle accounted for double-digit growth over the last decade, fuelled by rural people moving to the cities and starting to contribute to the economy. But this engine of growth has been used up and growth will drop down to single digits.”
This is relevant for the future of Brazil as Chinese growth also fuelled Brazilian exports, now standing at 50% of all Brazilian food exports. Turra adds: “We are too dependent on the Chinese market. Moving forward, we can’t have all our eggs in one basket – we have to look at new markets that are currently closed to us, such as India, Indonesia and Nigeria.”
According to the president of ABPA, Ricardo Santin, current markets are as important as ever. “China will not go away; it is the growth that is decreasing there. But we have more to offer and want to produce more food, keep supplying over 150 non-self-sufficient countries and prevent hunger.” He continues: “We can’t have borders for food as this will drive up prices and limit accessibility to good nutrition.”
Brazil does its utmost to be a transparent and trusted source to ensure exports keep flowing. Santin: “We have checks and balances in place to guarantee both sustainability and, above all, safety. Taking responsibility was top of mind when we voluntarily halted exports after the recent Newcastle disease case.”
At the same time, Santin hopes that his country’s regionalisation plan can be adopted by all trading partners so exports can restart as soon as possible. “Brazil is a large country and it makes no sense to block exports from all regions when just one is affected. We have been lobbying for regionalisation for 3 years now. The system is there, but we are dependent on third parties accepting it. Many countries have done so, but we have to respect the regulatory autonomy of nation states.”
Over the next 10 years, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) foresees a 20% increase in animal protein demand, 70% of which will be produced in Latam. Santin: “Together with the other main producers, the US and China, we have to produce more food and cope with disease threats. Falling short will further increase food inflation, as we can already see happening around the world.”