US poultry outlook for 2007

The report indicates that total US red meat and poultry production in 2007 is projected to grow at a considerably slower rate than expected for 2006. Increases of about 2% are expected for red meat and poultry production next year, while egg production is expected to increase by slightly more than 1%.


Total per capita consumption of red meats and poultry on a retail basis in 2007 is expected to be 225.6 pounds, an increase of less than 1% from the 225.2-pound forecast for 2006. Per capita egg consumption expected next year is 260.3 eggs, less than 1% above forecast per capita consumption this year of 258.6.


Poultry production is expected to continue to increase in 2007, although the rate of growth is expected to be less than in recent years. Broiler production is expected to total 36.8 billion pounds with turkey production estimated at 5.7 billion pounds. Expected higher corn prices and large supplies of total meat products are expected to dampen any incentive to strongly expand production. However, general economic indicators such as real GDP and per capita disposable income are forecast to continue to increase.


US broiler and turkey exports in 2007 are expected to be about 5.4 billion pounds and 620 million pounds, respectively. First-quarter 2006 broiler exports totaled 1.338 billion pounds, considerably higher than previously estimated. It is likely that low prices for leg quarters spurred large purchases that more than offset lower shipments to areas with AI concerns. Broiler exports this year are expected to total 5.5 billion pounds. Russia has reportedly resumed re-licensing for poultry meat and poultry products on May 5, 2006, under a new system, after canceling all poultry import permits on April 27. Turkey exports in the first quarter 2006 were 119 million pounds more than 5% lower than the first quarter 2005. The United States is expected to export 575 million pounds of turkey this year, down slightly from 2005.


The US egg-type layer flock averaged a record, pushing egg production up and prices down in the first quarter 2006. However, as supplies come closer to demand, prices are expected to rebound, ending 2006 higher than 2005. In 2007, egg production is forecast to increase 1.4%, and prices are expected to go up 6 to 8 % due to higher feed costs.


For more detailed information on outlooks for broilers, eggs, turkeys and export markets, you can view the full report.