Alarming drop in US hatchability of broiler breeder eggs
As of this year, broiler hatchability in the United States is 6 percentage points lower than it was at its 2012 peak. This hatchability crisis represents a profound cost to the industry as well as a challenge in churning out enough broiler chicks to meet demand. Poultry World dives into research done by Innovate Animal Ag and discusses possible causes and ways to mitigate this alarming trend with multiple stakeholders.
There are dozens of factors influencing the hatchability of eggs, most of which can be influenced by management of equipment, stockmanship, nutrition and handling, to name a few. The level of knowledge in the industry is extremely high, so much so that whole books and management guides have been written on the topic of hatchability and specialists focus on it every day of the week.
We are at the level where we further improve by making minute tweaks to improve 0.1% in hatchability. The best breeder flocks and top hatcheries in Europe are able to get close to 90% of hatch of their fertile eggs, with an industry average of 85%. This average must sound familiar to US hatcheries, too, as it is the number they reached in 2012 after decades of steady improvement since the 1980s. Hatchability, mirroring other trends in animal agriculture, improved throughout the late 1990s and 2000s. But starting around 2012, after peaking around 85%, the trailing 12-month average of broiler hatchability began steadily declining each year, reaching a shocking low of 79% in 2024. The trend shows no sign of stopping, and hatchability may fall further in the coming years.
Possible causes
Innovate Animal Ag’s report mentions a number of possible causes for the drop in hatchability. Founder and CEO Robert Yaman commissioned a broad study into this pressing issue. “The figures are quite shocking indeed, but in talks with the industry we were surprised to hear that it was not a problem that was on the top of their minds. Some weren’t even aware of the severity of what was happening since 2012.”
Part of the lack of urgency could be explained by the unknown cause of the issue. Surprisingly, there is no consensus on why the US has been experiencing this decline in hatchability, although a number of hypotheses have been put forth by veterinarians and other industry stakeholders. Some people believe that the problem is isolated to the USA, meaning that the underlying cause must be something specific to the US market, but unfortunately global data is too limited to confirm this hypothesis.
Numerous possible explanations for the hatchability crisis have been proposed in the research by Innovate Animal Ag, although there is insufficient data to say with certainty if there’s a single underlying cause. One possible culprit is Covid disruptions, which temporarily reduced the demand for chicken meat, causing breeder flocks to be retired early and new placements reduced. Then, when demand returned, breeder flocks were older on average and were pushed to their limits, resulting in significant infertility issues. Experts also pointed out that the decrease in hatchability may also be an unintended side effect of genetic selection towards feed conversion rate and breast yield at the cost of selecting on reproductive traits.
Further thoughts in this direction lead to the question as to whether genetic optimisations for improved feed conversion and yield have not led to a notable reduction in breeder fertility due to a more physical factor. Increased breeder size could indirectly contribute to the hatchability crisis by increasing floor eggs as the hens have grown larger while the individual nest boxes have stayed the same size.
Also, aging industry infrastructure and lower aggregate workforce skill could negatively impact things such as the age of hatching eggs at set, temperature management, disinfection practices and breeder flock management, all of which could lead to hatch loss at different stages of the incubation cycle. Lastly, the presence of a specific microbe, Enterococcus Faecalis, is considered as an explanation for the mysterious decade-long drop in hatchability rates. Yaman states, however, that every single theory falls short in explaining why the decline started around 2012 in particular and has become so severe.
A focus on the turning point
Until 2012, everything seemed fine in the US market. In the years running up to 2012, a gradual increase in hatchability was seen. The start of the downward turn coincides with one development: the abolishment of the use of the majority of antibiotics instigated by the Food and Drug administration.
“We think this had a profound negative effect, but that doesn’t give us a quick fix for this multi-factorial problem, apart from reintroducing antibiotics,” said Rory Fenton, programme director of Innovate Animal Ag. The use of antibiotics in poultry production did mask several underlying issues related to management, health, nutrition and welfare while they were still used.
Senior researcher at Wageningen University Rick van Emous specialised in broiler breeders and comments on producing without antibiotics: “You can’t just stop using antibiotics and leave the rest as is.” According to him, as well as other breeder experts, poor-quality feed or imbalanced nutrition can weaken the birds’ immune systems, making them more susceptible to diseases. What’s more, suboptimal management practices such as poor ventilation, high ammonia levels and inadequate temperature control can stress birds and make them prone to respiratory and gut infections.
A more holistic approach — improving hygiene, management, nutrition and welfare — is essential for sound poultry production. Van Emous: “You need to cater to the birds’ needs and be on top of your game, 100% of the time.”
Tremendous costs
With the current hatchability percentages, the US poultry industry is back at the level of the 1980s. As the poultry business is an industry of scale, numbers do matter. With breeders producing 170 eggs and underperforming 5-6%, the consequences are huge. Van Emous: “A quick glance at the numbers shows that US breeder farms fall short 8.5 chicks per hen compared what could be expected.”
Innovate Animal Ag calculates that a 6 percentage point change in hatchability means that an additional 550 million broilers are not hatched annually. US department of agriculture data underpins this conclusion. A reduction in hatchability means that more breeders are needed to produce the same number of chicks, substantially increasing the costs of chick production.
Since 2012, the size of the US broiler breeder flock has grown 12 percentage points more than chicken meat production over the same time period, largely due to the decrease in hatchability. One cost estimate of just 1 new breeder housing showed that, with high interest rates, labour shortages and increased material costs, a 4-house, 40,000 head breeder farm may cost US$3 million, not including the value of the land.
It’s the eggs…
The place where losses at hatch become visible is the hatchery. The University of Arkansas made a breakdown of hatch losses, noting that 42% are due to infertile eggs and 58% due to early (28), mid (6) and late (24) term incubation. A combination of factors, ranging from poor temperature and humidity control, low quality incubation equipment and poor transportation methods, are often seen as the cause.
Outdated hatcheries in the US are easy to blame for suboptimal hatching results. However, a case brought forward to Poultry World by a European trader in hatching eggs tells a different story. European hatching eggs, flown half way across the globe, achieved a hatch percentage of 83, which is way above the US average. According to those involved, this even surprised the hatchery staff. “This underscores my opinion that much of it comes down to the egg, its quality and subsequently the breeder flock,” said Van Emous. Improving hatchery tech and knowledge can surely bring 1-2% improvement, but the real difference can be made on farm.
He argues that producers may be experiencing a particular decrease in hatchability around 40-45 weeks of age, potentially caused by over-mating. His proposed solution is to start breeder flocks out with a lower percentage of males and increase the percentage over time. Standard practice in the US is to start breeder flocks with 9% males at placement, which drops gradually due to mortality and culls by 40 weeks of age. At this point, males are periodically added, a practice referred to as “spiking.” The high percentage of starting males may lead to “excessive” mating early in the hens’ lives, which in turn reduces their proclivity to engage in voluntary mating later in life. This is problematic because forced mating is successful only 50% of the time and can cause damage to the hens’ feathers or skin. Unhealthy and overmated hens also exhibit hiding behavior, which can reduce fertility.
Van Emous’ proposal is to instead start with 5 percentage points fewer males and to gradually increase the number throughout the course of the laying phase. His research finds that late phase fertility is much higher in flocks raised this way. He attributes this to the hens being more likely to engage in voluntary mating because they have developed less fear of roosters early in their life. This intervention may be particularly relevant given that the average age of breeder flocks in the US may be increasing. For producers, this approach is both effective and economical — hatchability improves, fewer males are used, and the hens are healthier with less feather and skin damage.
The path forward
Innovate Animal Ag’s research sees the hatchability crisis right now as a pivotal opportunity for the industry. The sustained decline in hatchability over the past decade is a real, substantial threat that needs to be addressed head-on.
The research concludes that the path forward requires a 2-pronged approach. First, the industry must come together to establish a comprehensive research initiative that can help identify the root cause of the hatchability crisis. Whether through an industry taskforce or academic partnerships, this collaborative effort is essential to moving beyond individual theories and toward concrete solutions. Second, while this research is ongoing, producers should continue to explore and implement the promising technological and management solutions already available to be able to meet the growing global demand for sustainable protein production.
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