Robust growth is projected for the Ukrainian poultry and egg industry
Ukraine will boost poultry production by 28% to 1.7 million tonnes through 2033 compared with 2023, according to a forecast published by the Kyiv School of Economy (KSE).
Positive gross margins and changes in consumption patterns are the main factors contributing to this increase.
Large-scale poultry meat producers in Ukraine, often also producing poultry feed, are a significant driving force behind the industry’s growth. Their ability to benefit from economies of scale and lower production costs, as indicated by KSE, largely contributes to the capacity growth.
Meanwhile, per capita consumption of poultry meat is expected to continue to grow and is projected to reach 32.3 kg per year by 2033 – 15.9% up compared with 2023. In the course of the coming years, poultry will replace beef as the primary protein source in the diet of Ukrainians.
Beef consumption in Ukraine is projected to plunge in the coming years. Total poultry consumption will, however, stagnate after 2026 at the level of approximately 1.3 million tonnes per year, owing to an expected negative population trend.
No way back for the egg industry
Neither egg production nor consumption is expected to bounce back to the pre-war level. The development of large-scale enterprises in the poultry sector has also driven the growth of chicken egg production, KSE said.
The analysts forecast growth of egg production up to 855,00 tonnes by 2033, which is an increase of 31% compared with 2023. “However, neither chicken eggs production nor domestic consumption will recover to the pre=war level by 2033, primarily due to negative population trend and destruction of the large egg-producing facilities in the south of Ukraine during the Russian invasion,” KSE said.
Damages keep rising
Ukrainian agriculture, including the poultry industry, continues to suffer from damages and destruction as a result of ongoing fights. KSE calculated the combined value of the destroyed assets total at US$10.3 billion, marking an 18% increase over the previous estimates made for the first year of the full-scale invasion.
“The relatively moderate increase in damages is attributed to a substantial share of the assets located in areas of active hostilities already being damaged in the previous version of the estimates,” KSE said.
Total reconstruction and recovery needs over the next 10 years amount to US$56 billion, with 2024 priority needs being US$435 million, most of which is already covered by donor funding, KSE added.
