The dynamics of the meat industry in the ASEAN zone
There are not many scientific studies on meat production and meat trade for the ASEAN economic area. With an estimated population of 636 million (2022), the area only contributed 5.3% to the world’s meat production that year. The 10 member states differ considerably regarding the volume and importance of various meat types. This article zooms in on the decade from 2012 to 2022 – years when ASF, avian influenza and Covid-19 influenced production.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was founded in Bangkok, Thailand, in August 1967 with the aim of promoting economic development, creating a free trade zone and cooperating on security and cultural issues. The founding countries were Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. In the following years, Brunei (1984), Vietnam (1995), Laos, Myanmar (1997) and Cambodia (1999) joined the association.
With 257 million inhabitants, Indonesia was the most populous member country in 2022, compared to only 412,000 people living in Brunei. At US$1.48 trillion, Indonesia had the highest gross domestic product (GDP), while Brunei had the lowest at US$15 billion. The gross value added per person varied between US$82,808 in Singapore and only US$1,228 in Myanmar (see Table 1). At US$4.1 trillion, the GDP of the economic area was roughly equivalent to that of Germany.
The large differences in population size, religious affiliation and purchasing power mainly determined the demand for different meat types. Religious taboos banned the consumption of beef or pork, for example. The resulting differences in the production of the various meat types are discussed at country level.
Remarkable changes in meat production
Between 2012 and 2022, meat production in ASEAN increased 19% from 16.1 million tonnes to 19.1 million tonnes. The development of the various meat types varied considerably (see Table 2). With the exception of chicken meat, for which there was an increase in production of almost 3.4 million tonnes (46.2%), production of all other meat types declined.
The increasing preference for chicken meat, which is not subject to religious taboos, is obvious. This reflects a global shift from red to white meat consumption. It is noteworthy that the outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza in some member countries apparently had less of an impact than the African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic. Obviously, the epidemics and the change in consumer behaviour had different impacts on the share of individual meat types in total meat production.
Figure 1 shows that ASF occurred at different times in the 3 countries considered. While the disease apparently spread slowly in the Philippines and a slight increase in production was already evident again from 2022, there were massive outbreaks in Myanmar in 2017 and 2018. Malaysia had no infections for several years, but also suffered high production losses in 2022.
A devastating outbreak of avian influenza occurred in Myanmar at the same time as the ASF epidemic. Chicken meat production fell by around 70%, or 1.1 million tonnes between 2017 and 2018. Although there are signs that production stabilised from 2020 onwards, new outbreaks are regularly reported (Figure 2).
As can be seen in Figure 3, the epidemics and the change in consumer behaviour had a considerable impact on the share of individual types of meat in total meat production. Chicken meat was able to significantly expand its leading position, with its share increasing by 10.5%. In contrast, pork lost 6.7% and beef 2.2%; the other types of meat also suffered losses. Differences in development at the country level
Table 3 documents the different dynamics in the member countries. The largest absolute increases in meat production were achieved in Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. Production volumes fell most sharply in Myanmar and the Philippines. The highest relative growth rates were recorded in Indonesia, Laos and Vietnam. The significantly lower production volume in Laos must be considered, however. Myanmar recorded the strongest relative decline at 51.5%, followed by Singapore.
While the halving of production in Myanmar can be attributed to the 2 epidemics, Singapore has largely discontinued animal production due to ecological problems in coastal areas caused by excrement from livestock farming. The decrease in pork production in the Philippines by almost 440,000 tonnes due to ASF outbreaks resulted in over 300,000 tonnes of pork imports in 2022 to feed the population. It is surprising that Myanmar only imported a small amount despite the massive slump in production. It appears that there were no financial resources available.
The regional concentration of meat production in the ASEAN economic area was extremely high (Figure 4). The different dynamics in the individual countries led to considerable changes in the ranking of countries and their shares in total production between 2012 and 2022.
The remarkable increase in production in Indonesia had the consequence that it rose from fourth to first place, displacing Vietnam from this position. The Philippines fell from second to fourth place due to declining production. Myanmar and Malaysia changed positions. While Malaysia’s contribution to total production remained largely stable, Myanmar’s fell from 14.4% to 5.8%. The country was the big loser in the decade under review. The sharp increase in regional concentration is noteworthy. Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for over half of ASEAN meat production in 2022. A closer look at the development of the production volume in the member countries by meat type reveals some interesting results. The leading roles of Indonesia and Vietnam in 2022 were primarily due to an increase in their chicken meat production. In Indonesia, this increased by 133% from 1.7 million to 4 million tonnes in the decade under review. In Vietnam, it doubled from 0.53 million to 1.1 million tonnes. Myanmar’s sharp decrease was partly due to a decline in pig meat production of 377,000 tonnes (57%) and partly to the decrease in chicken production of 523,000 tonnes (45.8%). The Philippines’ descent from second to fourth place was the result of a decline in pig meat production from 1.65 million tonnes in 2012 to just 1.26 million tonnes, a drop of 26.4%.
Differences in the leading types of meat
In addition to the increasing purchasing power of the population, the share of individual meat types in total production depended to a large extent on the composition of religious affiliations. We will now document that for selected countries.
As can be seen from Figure 5, a rough classification can be made between countries in which chicken meat was predominant and those which mainly produced pig meat. In Indonesia, chicken meat accounted for 81% of meat production. That high proportion can be explained by the dominance of Islam, to which 88% of the population belonged. Pig meat was therefore only of minor importance. Although chicken meat was also the predominant type of meat produced in Thailand, with a contribution of 62.1%, pig meat also accounted for 30.1%. The dominant religious affiliation was Buddhism (95% of the population) and they were permitted to consume pork.
The breakdown was similar in Singapore. However, the very low production volume must be taken into account here. Religious affiliation is broadly diversified, with about a third of the population being Buddhists.
In Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, pig meat had by far the highest share in meat production. In Cambodia and Laos, the majority of the population professed Buddhism; in Vietnam, 88% of the population stated in 2022 that they did not belong to any religious denomination; Buddhists and Christians only accounted for small shares. In Cambodia and Laos, beef and buffalo meat each shared over 30% of meat production. Chicken meat ranked third in both countries, but the low production volume compared to Vietnam must be considered. As already mentioned, the growing importance of this meat type has led to a doubling of production in Vietnam. To summarise, it can be said that the religious affiliation of the population determined to a large extent the composition of meat production.
Summary and outlook
Between 2012 and 2022, meat production increased from 16.1 million to 19.1 million tonnes (19%.) Growth was particularly dynamic in Indonesia and Vietnam. Massive outbreaks of ASF and avian influenza in Myanmar and the Philippines, on the other hand, resulted in a sharp decline in production, which had to be offset by imports.
Changes in consumers’ preference for certain meat types and the impacts of the disease outbreaks significantly altered the ranking of member countries in meat production in the decade under review. The regional concentration of production increased considerably. In 2022, Indonesia and Vietnam each shared over 50% in total meat production. Which meat type took a leading position in a member state depended to a large extent on the religious affiliation of the population as well as the purchasing power of the inhabitants. In countries with a predominantly Islamic population, chicken meat dominated because it was not subject to a consumption ban. In countries with a high proportion of Buddhists, on the other hand, pig meat ranked first or second.
It can be assumed that there will be a rapid increase in meat production in a number of countries due to the rapid growth in population and the increasing purchasing power. In line with a global trend, chicken meat is likely to gain shares and pork meat to lose shares in meat production and consumption. The favourable feed conversion rate of broilers will also play an increasingly important role. Limiting factors will in future also be outbreaks of ASF and avian influenza. If these highly infectious animal diseases cannot be contained, meat production will grow only moderately.
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