WASDE projects slow meat production growth in 2007

Beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey are each forecast to increase around 2% next year.


Broiler expansion in 2007 is forecast to slow as strong production gains, rising feed prices, and weaker 2006 prices result in moderate output next year. Turkey and egg production is forecast slightly higher.


The World Agricultural Outlook Board forecasts meat production for 2006 to rise slightly compared to last month, because of higher expected beef output. The broiler production was raised slightly higher because strong first-quarter output more than offset lower second-quarter output implied by slowing chick placements.


Meat exports are forecast to increase in 2007, according to WASDE. Broiler exports are raised slightly because of stronger-than expected first quarter shipments. The suspension and subsequent reissuing of poultry import licenses by Russia did not change the 2006 broiler forecast.


In 2007, beef and broiler prices are forecast higher than 2006, but hog and turkey prices are forecasted lower. Although 2007 broiler supplies are forecast to increase, slower production growth and improved demand are expected to support a modest price recovery. Turkey prices are forecast lower as higher production begins to weigh on the market.


Broiler prices are lowered on weaker parts prices. Turkey prices are increased due to tight whole-bird supplies.


The full report can be viewed at the USDA website.