Russian broiler production forecasts reviewed
FAS/Moscow forecasts Russian broiler production to reach 3.3 MMT in 2014, 3.4% more than FAS/Moscow’s 2013 estimate. The new State Program for the Development of Poultry Production from 2013-2015 (hereinafter, the 2013-2015 Poultry Program) conservatively envisages poultry production to grow to 4.0 MMT in 2015, compared to 3.55 MMT in 2012, and should help further boost Russian broiler production next year.
In addition to forecasting an increase in domestic production in 2014, due to industry support measures implemented by the Russian government in 2013 (e.g., grain intervention sales and compensation for high feed costs), as well as an increase in domestic grain production in 2013, FAS/Moscow has raised its estimate for 2013 Russian broiler production by 3% to 3.05 MMT.
Because of the forecasted increase in competitively priced domestic production, broiler imports are forecast to decrease slightly in 2014 (to 530,000 MT). Moreover, trade statistics show that Russian broiler imports were down nearly 6% (to 191,255 MT) during the first five months of 2013, when compared to the same period last year. This reduction in trade, coupled with FAS/Moscow’s expectation that Russian broiler production will grow at a faster pace in the second half of 2013, has led FAS/Moscow to reduce its 2013 import estimate by nearly 7% (to 540,000 MT).
Customs Union
The Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus Customs Union (CU) continues to promote intra-CU, duty-free agricultural trade. FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia’s broiler exports in 2014 to increase by 8% (to 65,000 MT) over revised 2013 levels as a result of increased domestic production at a lower cost of production, and favorable trade conditions between the two CU Member States.
FAS/Moscow’s 2013 export forecast has been reduced by nearly 30% (to 60,000 MT) because of several factors. First, Customs Union trade statistics show a significant decrease in year-on-year trade. While traders believe this data is underreported, they also expect Russian broiler exports to be lower than early 2013 projections. In addition, Kazakhstan has reportedly strengthened its own domestic broiler production, and increased control over imported products.
Turkey meat
With the timely release of financial support earmarked in the 2013-2015 Poultry Program, FAS/Moscow forecasts a 5% increase in turkey meat production in 2014 (to 105,000 MT). Additionally, given the increase in domestic turkey meat production, it is forecasted that imports will remain flat in 2014 (i.e., equivalent to Russia’s tariff rate quota volume for turkey meat).
FAS/Moscow’s turkey production estimate for 2013 has been decreased by nearly 5% (to 100,000 MT) as previously approved government support program earmarked for 2013 were not accomplished during the first half of the year due to a lack of financing. Imports of turkey meat during the first five months of 2013 decreased by 33% (to 4,485 MT) when compared to the same period in 2012. Given this considerable decrease in trade, FAS/Moscow has significantly lowered its import estimate for 2013 (to 14,000 MT).
Subsidies
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, subsidies should begin to be distributed among the largest Russian poultry producers in August 2013. This coupled with increases in grain production which should allow producers to be able to avail themselves of quality feeds at lower prices, should help to spur poultry production in the second half of 2013 and into 2014.
In addition, the Russian Union of Poultry Producers (known as Rosptitsesoyuz) has stated that it believes that other poultry sources (e.g., turkeys, geese, ducks, guinea fowl, and quail) show promise for economic viability, and further development of these sectors could provide a further boost to Russian poultry production in 2014 and beyond.
Source: USDA Gain Report
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